Tracking shrink between flights

Shrink is the feed you harvested but never got to feed — dry matter lost between filling a pile and feeding it out. SilagePlan quantifies shrink by comparing drone measurements over time, turning an invisible cost into a number you can manage.

What shrink is

Between harvest and feed-out, silage loses dry matter to fermentation, heating, spoilage on the surface and shoulders, seepage, and handling losses at the face. None of that loss shows up on a scale ticket when you fill — it just quietly reduces how many tons come back out. Industry losses commonly run well into double-digit percentages of harvested dry matter, and poorly packed or poorly covered storage loses far more.

How SilagePlan measures it

Shrink is measured by flying the same storage regularly:

  1. A flight shortly after harvest captures the starting volume of each pile, bunk, or bag.
  2. Follow-up flights measure how much volume has actually disappeared.
  3. When SilagePlan knows the tons fed between flights, it compares the tons you actually removed against the change the drone measured. The gap — material that left the pile without being fed — is shrink.

On the inventory data table you’ll see two shrink columns:

  • DM Loss Shrink — the estimated dry-matter loss for the pile, driven by its packing density.
  • Total Volume Shrink — cumulative volume shrink across the pile’s flight history.

The Packing density & shrink section

The Packing density & shrink section on the Inventory V2 page is where shrink comes to life:

  • Headline stats: total estimated shrink in dollars, average DM loss, and how much of it is recoverable if best-managed — plus how many piles have been measured.
  • Per-pile and by-feed-type cards, sorted by dollar loss, so the most expensive problems surface first. Filter by All piles, In-use, or Unused.
  • Shrink dollars are priced since harvest off each pile’s original tons — an editable baseline on in-use piles.
  • Research-backed guidance on what drives density: the 800 rule, thin packing layers, prompt sealing with oxygen-barrier film, packing the entire face, and feed-out face management.

Because shrink is calculated from measured volume and your feed-out data, good used-tons entries and a good density are essential — see Working with silage density.

Why it matters financially

Shrink is a direct cost. If a feed is worth $60 per ton and a 3,000-ton pile shrinks 12%, that’s 360 tons — over $21,000 — gone from one structure. Multiply across every pile and every year and shrink is often one of the largest controllable costs on a forage program. It also distorts planning: a ration balanced against inventory that ignores shrink will run out earlier than expected.

Knowing your actual shrink lets you:

  • Compare structures and practices (covered vs. uncovered, pile vs. bag, packing density) with real numbers.
  • Justify investments in covers, tires, facers, or packing equipment with measured payback.
  • Feed-budget realistically, so runout dates reflect the tons you will really have.

Getting good shrink numbers

  • Fly on a regular schedule — monthly or at least seasonally. One flight tells you what you have; repeated flights tell you what you’re losing.
  • Record used tons for each location between flights so the comparison has both sides.
  • Keep feed types and locations consistent between flights in your records so measurements line up.
  • Review the Packing density & shrink cards after each flight; a sudden jump usually points to a management issue at one structure while it can still be corrected.